Leader Palmeiras stumbled in the 24th round of the Brazilian Championship with a draw with Fluminense in the Maracana. What has changed in the title chances? almost anything. And the Alfevard team fell from 78% to 74% of the chances of finishing the competition in first place. Flamengo took the opportunity to win the classic against Botafogo and reduced the green’s advantage from nine to seven points, thus increasing the chances of winning the title from 8% to 12%. The distance is still quite large, and with each round, Brazil’s eleventh title is getting closer and closer to Allianz Parque.
Fluminense and Inter ran abroad with a 5% chance of surprising favorite Palmeiras, but they need a positive streak never seen before in the current tournament. However, it’s worth remembering Colorada’s impressive stage that comes from three straight wins that started exactly in a 3-0 match against Tricolor Carioca.
Inter run abroad in the fight for the title and stand out in the fight for the G-4 – Photo: Riccardo Duarte/Internationale
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In partnership with economist Bruno Imazumi, we have analyzed 89,659 shots recorded by Espião Statístico in 3,659 Brazilian matches since the 2013 edition, which serves as an indicator to measure the current productivity of teams in attack and defense based on goal predictions (xG), an internationally standardized measure. The data acts as a parameter to calculate each team’s chances of winning the remaining matches, running 10,000 simulations for each match played, resulting in the percentages shown below. The methodology used is explained at the end of the text.
Title chances in Brazil
If the title is Palmeiras’ prominent favourite, the battle for the G-4 is very open between the Flamengo, the Fluminense, the Corinthians and the Internacional. The rotation of positions between these two teams witnessed the last rounds, which left the place of Libertadores with a conflict that draws attention. Fla increased from 74% to 80% and is the preferred candidate for inclusion in this group, while influenza decreased from 67% to 63%, giving a gap for Alvinegros and Colorado approaches.
Even with a 42-point tie, Internacional and Corinthians showed a different performance if we look at their offensive production and recent days. Timão is fourth, one behind Gauchos thanks to the number of wins, but a good sequence of three positive results saw Inter go up from 37% to 58% of G-4 chances. The proportion of people arriving from São Paulo decreased from 45% to 35%. Nothing can’t be changed next Sunday, after all, the two teams face each other at the Neo Química Arena to gauge the powers.
With no chance of staying in the G-4 or even in the G-6, four teams were out of order: Coritiba, Atlético-GO, Avaí and Juventude. Fighting these teams is not playing in the second division in the 2023 season.
Opportunities to go to Libertadores
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Lantern at the end of the turn, Stronghold is an example of not giving in to the search for recovery even if that seems unlikely. Since then there have been five matches and five wins, including Corinthians and Internacional on the casualty list, fourth and fifth respectively. The chances of staying in Serie A have risen from 68% to 89% last week and now to 95%. Five points off the Z-4, Ceará’s Tricolor can’t let the pace go down, but it looks like the worst is over.
There are 12 teams that have a more than 90% chance of surviving in the First Division, leaving other rivals under increasing pressure. Juventud’s Lantern, having been crushed by Inter, saw his chances of remaining in the elite dropped from 6% to 3.6%. Curitiba beat Avai, left the relegation zone and improved his chances from 32% to 45%, while Santa Catarina fell from 43% to 25%. Atlético-GO lost the Classics to Goiás and the coach, dropping from 43% to 34% staying potential in Serie A.
Chances of staying in the Italian league
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The chances of the teams to finish the Brazilian League in each position after 24 rounds – Photo: Bruno Imaizumi / Espião Statístico
We present statistical probabilities based on parameters of the ‘Goals Expected’ or ‘Goal Expectations’ (xG) model, a standardized measure in data analysis that contains for reference the snapshots made by the statistical spy in 3,659 Brasileirão games since the 2013 edition.
The variables considered in the model are: (1) the distance and angle of the shot relative to the target; (2) if the shot is head-on with the goalkeeper; (3) If this is done without the presence of the goalkeeper. (4) the part of the body used to complete it; (5) whether the termination was first straightened or charged; Was the kick taken with the player’s good or bad leg? (6) The origin of the play (penalty kick, corner kick, cross, direct foul, stealing, touch, etc.); (7) whether the assistance was provided from within the area; (8) The position in which the player plays. (ix) kick strength indicators; (10) the market value of the teams each season from Transfermarkt website data (as a proxy for team quality); (11) Play time. (12) The age of the player. (13) The height of the goalkeeper in plays that originate from the top balls. (14) The difference in score at the time of each submission.
Of every hundred shots from the Half Moon, for example, only seven turn out to be a goal. Therefore, the Half Moon Shot Target (xG) is about 0.07. Each position on the field has a different expectation that a shot turns into a goal, which increases if it’s a counterattack because there are fewer opponents to avoid completing play. Each score is added over the course of the match to arrive at the team’s xG total in each game. This difference indicates the teams’ chances of beating each opponent, and from there, the clubs’ chance of finishing the tournament in each position is calculated.
The model used in the analysis follows a statistical distribution called a Bivariate Poisson, which calculates the probabilities of events (in this case, each team’s goals) occurring during a given time period (the game). To arrive at predictions about each team’s chances of finishing the tournament in each position, the Monte Carlo method was used, which mainly relies on simulation to generate results. For every game we haven’t played yet, we run ten thousand simulations.
* The Statistical Espionage Team consists of: Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marçal, João Guerra, Leandro Silva, Leonardo Martins, Roberto Maleson and Valmir Storti.
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