New York futures and European markets rose, while Asian stocks closed without a specific direction on Tuesday (30), after a week of losses on Monday in the wake of comments by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in Jackson Hole last Friday.
Powell indicated that high interest rates are likely to continue in an attempt to tame rising inflation.
In his long-awaited speech, Powell said the Fed will use the tools aggressively to rein in the nation’s price hikes, which are still close to their highest level in more than 40 years. He admitted that higher interest rates would cause “some pain” to households and businesses.
On Tuesday, investors await several updates on the health of the US economy, including the FHFA House Price Index for June, the Consumer Confidence Survey for August, and the Job Supply Survey (JOLTs) data for July.
In domestic indices, the highlight of August was the IGP-M, at 8 am, which fell by 0.70% in August, after rising by 0.21% in the previous month. With this result, the index accumulates 7.63% in the year and 8.59% in 12 months. In August 2021, the index had risen by 0.66% and accumulated higher by 31.12% in 12 months. The Refinitiv consensus indicated a contraction of 0.54%. The result of the central government’s calculations for the month of July is also shown and will be released at 2:30 PM.
On the political front, an IPIC poll conducted between August 26 and 28 showed that the electoral portrayal has not changed with the start of radio and television campaigns. Lula continues to lead the presidential race with 44%, while President Bolsonaro holds 32% of voting intentions.
1. Global Scholarships
US index futures are rising after two consecutive declines, as the declines were affected by the Federal Reserve Chairman’s aggressive tone towards US interest rates.
The market slumped after recent comments from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank intends to continue raising interest rates, even if it causes economic problems.
Watch the performance of futures markets:
- Dow Jones Futures (USA), +0.65%
- S&P 500 futures contract (US), +0.84%
- Nasdaq Future (US), +15%
Asian markets closed mixed after sharp declines in the previous session, with an aggressive speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole.
Investors are still digesting the speech of the US central bank chief, in which he stressed the need to raise interest rates for a longer period to control inflation.
- Shanghai SE (China), -0.42%
- Nikkei (Japan), +14%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), -0.37%
- Kospi (South Korea) +0.99%
European markets, as well as US markets, are running higher after a negative start to the week, following the statements of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday.
Powell’s comments were echoed by ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel over the weekend. Schnabel reiterated the view that central banks must act decisively to fight rising inflation, even if it means dragging their economies into recession.
Notably, natural gas prices in Europe have fallen more than 18% to below €280 per megawatt-hour, after rising nearly 40% last week after Germany said its gas storage facilities should be 85% full by the month. next. before the October target.
- FTSE 100 (UK), +0.42%
- Dax (Germany), +1.27%
- CAC 40 (France), +1.02%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), +1.21%
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, as concerns about global inflation overshadowed the prospect of potential production cuts from OPEC+.
Inflation has approached double-digit territory in many of the world’s largest economies, a level not seen in nearly half a century, and investors fear the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States and Europe.
Dalian iron ore futures fell below $100 a ton on Tuesday amid renewed concerns about COVID-19 restrictions and steel production in China, the world’s largest producer.
- West Texas Intermediate crude, -1.56% at $95.50 a barrel
- Brent crude, down -1.96% to $103.03 a barrel
- The most traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Stock Exchange fell 5.01% to 682.00 yuan, equivalent to 98.77 US dollars.
- Bitcoin, +2.96% to $2,0406.17 (from 24 hours ago)
In the docket of indicators, highlight US labor market numbers. Today (30), the JOLTS job offer report will be released. Tomorrow (31), the ADP survey returns, on job creation in the private sector. The Refinitiv consensus is that 200,000 positions opened in June.
Here, the August IGP-M inflation will be released at 8am. Itaú BBA expects a monthly decline of 0.72%, bringing the annual rate to 8.6%, compared to 10.1% in July. The reading should show the deflation in consumer prices, still due to the tax cut in July. In addition, industrial wholesale goods may face deflation reflecting lower iron ore, diesel and gasoline prices – due to Petrobras’ price cuts.”
8:00 am: August IGP-M, down 0.70% month over month; The Refinitiv consensus indicated a monthly decrease of 0.54%.
8:00 am: August Service Box
10:00 am: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, meets with the Board of Directors of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) (closed to the press)
10:00 am: Roberto Campos Neto, President of British Columbia, holds a meeting with representatives of Atlas Intelligence (closed to the press)
2 pm: Campos Neto meets with members of the International Institute for Statistics and Information to collect the 2022 census (closed to the press)
2:30 pm: The central government’s preliminary result for July, with a surplus on Refinitiv expected at R$17.6 billion.
3 p.m.: Campos Neto participates in the “Update of Supplementary Law 130/2009” event, promoted by the Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives (OCB)
5 p.m.: Geddes meets with Senator Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ).
5:30 pm: Campos Neto holds a meeting with Leonardo Soltani, Private Secretary for Bureaucracy, Administration and Digital Government, representatives of the Ministry of Economy, representatives of Sinal, ANBCB and SinTBacen (closed to the press)
18:00: Guedes meets with the Minister of Infrastructure, Marcelo Sampaio
7:30 p.m.: Geddes meets with Federal Rep. Ricardo Barros (PP-PR)
United States of America
9:00 a.m.: Address by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin
11 am: job offer – july shakes
11 a.m.: Consumer Confidence in August
12:00: New York Fed President John Williams’ speech
17:30: Oil Inventories (API) Weekly
9 a.m.: Consumer Price Index
20:50: Industrial Production
20:50: Retail sales
10:30 PM: PMI
3. Lula maintains the lead with 44% and Bolsonaro has 32% of voting intentions, Ipec indicates
In the first week of radio and television campaigns, former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) maintained the advantage he had over his opponents in the dispute over the Planalto Palace. This is what a survey published by Ipec showed on Monday night (29).
According to a survey conducted between August 26 and 28, Lula has 44% of voting intentions – the same level as the last poll taken two weeks ago. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), a candidate for re-election, held with 32%.
See the agenda of the presidential candidates this Tuesday
The percentage of federal lawmakers seeking re-election is the second-highest in the last 20 years
At least 451 of the 513 federal lawmakers will try to be re-elected on October 2, when the first round of this year’s election will take place. The figure, about 88% of the current legislature, is the second highest in the past 20 years, lower than the result of 2006, when 491 politicians sought seats in the House of Representatives to renew their terms for another four years.
The House reported that in the 2018 general election, 413 federal representatives ran for re-election, with 289 receiving enough votes to join the current legislature.
Chile summons Brazilian ambassador to protest Bolsonaro’s comments
The Chilean government summoned the Brazilian ambassador in Santiago to provide clarifications after the accusations made by the president and his re-election candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, on Sunday evening, against the Chilean President Gabriel Borek.
Summoning the ambassador in diplomatic circles is a way of expressing deep dissatisfaction with one government over some actions of another – in this case, with Bolsonaro’s remarks during a debate between the presidential candidates, when he tried to attack the former president. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT).
Lula also supported the president of Chile, the same person who set fire to the subway trains in Chile. Where is Chile headed? “, Bolsonaro, also criticizing the governments of Venezuela, Argentina and Colombia, said during the debate by the band TV, TV Cultura, UOL and Folha de Paulo.
And Brazil recorded, last Monday (29), 170 deaths and 13,856 cases of coronavirus infection within 24 hours, according to information from the Media Union, at 8 pm.
The 7-day moving average of deaths from Covid in Brazil is 139, down 21% compared to the level of 14 days before that.
The seven-day moving average of new cases was 15,028, which is a 21% decrease from the level 14 days ago.
The number of people fully vaccinated against Covid in Brazil has reached 170,069,429, equivalent to 79.17% of the population.
The number of people who received at least the first dose of vaccines was 180,720,131, which is 84.12% of the population.
The booster dose was given to 101,872,817 people, or 47.42% of the population.
5. Corporate radar
Petróleo Brasileiro reported on Monday (29) that the bonding phase is underway regarding the complete sale of Unit III Nitrogen Fertilizer Unit (UFN-III), located in Três Lagoas (MS).
Potential buyers eligible for this stage, according to the criteria published in the joke, received a practical letter containing detailed instructions on the divestment process, including guidelines for implementing due diligence and submitting binding proposals.
Oi (OIBR3, OIBR4) has informed that it will submit a reverse proposal for a share split to the operator’s board of directors, which will then be examined by shareholders at its extraordinary general meeting later this year. The process takes place in response to a letter from B3 which gave the company until 1st September to disclose the procedures and timetable to be adopted to frame the price of its common stock in an amount equal to or greater than 1 Brazilian Real until 2/17/23 or until the date of the first general meeting held after receipt of the notification.
Movida (MOVI3) reported a change in the value of JCP. The amount approved by the Movida Board of Directors (MOVI3) on June 23, 2022 was changed from R$ 0.146550048 to R$0.146551917, due to the Restricted Stock Program. The total amount is R $ 53 million. The rule remains until June 30 this year.
(Jointly with Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)
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