Brazilian Q2 GDP, Payroll and IRB Bid Pricing (IRBR3): What to watch this week

Brazilian Q2 GDP, Payroll and IRB Bid Pricing (IRBR3): What to watch this week

The busy week with financial indicators month. Brazilian and international economic numbers are mixed with a batch of electoral opinion polls, with just over a month left before the presidential election. In Brazil, the highlight was the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter. In the United States, for labor market data.

The GDP watcher, from Fundação Getúlio Vargas, reports a quarterly expansion of 1.1% of Brazilian GDP between April and June of this year. Already unanimous Refinitiv It expects a more moderate growth of 0.9%.

UBS BB, which forecasts an increase of 1.3%, highlights that the growth of the economy in this period was driven by the services sector. However, it expects a decline in GDP in the third quarter, which reflects the monetary tightening in the country. Itau expects 1.1% growth, with the three main sectors — agriculture, services, and industry — growing on the sidelines.

GDP should register solid growth, close to that seen in the first three months of the year. The result should be driven by the service sector, on the supply side, and household consumption, from a demand perspective,” Bradesco analysts wrote.

The day after the GDP release, Friday (2), industrial production for July is released. unanimity Refinitiv It indicates a positive monthly variance of 0.5% and a decline of 0.3% in the annual comparison. “We expect an increase of 1%, with positive numbers from both the manufacturing and extraction sectors,” according to a report from Itaú.

The numbers of the general register of the employed and the unemployed (imprisoned), which was supposed to be issued last week, have been postponed to Monday (29). Itau continues to expect stability in the level of employment. The ongoing PNAD survey, in turn, will be released on Wednesday (31). UBS BB expects the unemployment rate for July to fall by 30 basis points from June to 8.8%.

Employment data is also shown in the United States

The market continues to try to predict the next steps of the US central bank. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave his speech at the Jackson Hole seminar and the market mood soured. a president He reaffirmed the monetary authority’s commitment to controlling inflation and keeping it away from doves Adopted by the last meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC).

For analysts, the chances of US interest rates rising by 75 basis points. On Monday, agents should follow Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard’s speech, in search of new evidence about the Fed’s performance.

In the docket of indicators, highlight US labor market numbers. The marathon starts on Tuesday (30th) with a JOLTS job offer report. In the fourth, the ADP survey is due to job creation in the private sector. unanimity Refinitiv It indicates 200,000 jobs opened in June.

Finally, the US Department of Labor will release, on Friday (2), a file Payroll. Median market expectations are for 285,000 job vacancies to be created in August, nearly half of those recorded in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5%. The average salary should increase by 0.4% compared to the previous month.

“The market will be watching the slowdown in new job creation and wage performance,” says Bradesco’s analysis.

In Europe, pay attention to inflation data

Key inflation indicators for the Eurozone will be announced in the coming days, as the European Central Bank tightens its monetary policy to curb prices. The Consumer Index will be released on Wednesday (31) and the annual inflation rate is expected to rise to 9%.

The European bloc’s producer price index is due on Friday (2). unanimity Refinitiv It indicates 3% growth in July compared to June. Thus, the index will accumulate 37% in 12 months.

IRB Offer Pricing and Inter BDR Transfer

On Wednesday (1), the subsequent IRB bid (IRBR3) is priced. The offering will consist of an initial public distribution of, initially, 597,014,925 new shares, with limited placement efforts, to be carried out in Brazil, with placement efforts abroad. The operation will be limited to R$1.2 billion.

On Monday, the delivery offices of Inter & Co, owner of Banco Inter, will move to Level 2 of B3 and change their index: from INBR31 to INBR32. Firms that trade Tier 2 BDRs must be registered with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). with this Raising the level ofIn addition to the stock exchange, securities can be traded in more places, such as regulated over-the-counter markets.

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