US futures rise ahead of Jackson Hole and GDP data;  China today ramps up stimulus and more market affairs

US futures rise ahead of Jackson Hole and GDP data; China today ramps up stimulus and more market affairs

US futures rose and European stock markets lost steam after recording gains earlier, while Asian markets closed on Thursday (25) bullish, with investors around the world waiting for the start of the Jackson Economic Symposium.

The Fed event kicks off today, with Chairman Jerome Powell delivering a speech on Friday. Market participants will be watching for information on the path of the US central bank’s monetary tightening as it seeks to contain inflation, and whether policy makers can cut interest rates once the current bullish cycle ends.

The second day of the Jackson Hole seminar, on Friday, will also coincide with the release of one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite indicators: the Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE), for the month of July. Currently, this indicator is accumulating a high of 6.8% in 12 months, well above the US inflation target of 2%.

In the US as well, investors will closely follow the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. The Refinitiv consensus indicates 253,000 requests in this period.

In Europe, after the German economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, market participants await the minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, scheduled for 8:30 am, in search of more clarity on the institution’s plans, after an unexpected monetary tightening. at 0.50 pips in the last meeting.

In Asia, China’s intensified stimulus to the economy has helped stimulate markets, with other measures worth 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion).

Here, after a smaller-than-expected contraction in the IPCA-15 the previous day, investors are waiting for Caged data to assess the health of the country’s economic activity.

On the political side, ex-President Lula participates on Saturdays on Journal Nacional, on TV Globo, at 8:30 p.m.

Check out more highlights:

1. Global Scholarships

United State

US index futures rose Thursday morning after the three major indices closed higher during the last trading session.

Today’s rally comes as investors await the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which begins today (25) when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak the next morning.

Earnings season continues with the release of Peloton, Gap, Dollar Tree and Dollar General before the markets open. Ulta Beauty, Workday and Affirm Holdings will release their results after the markets close.

Watch the performance of futures markets:

  • Dow Jones Futures (USA), +0.68%
  • S&P 500 futures contract (US), +0.91%
  • Nasdaq Futures (US), +1.05%

Asia

Asian markets closed higher as investors awaited the Jackson Hole seminar, while the Hong Kong session resumed in the afternoon after trading was halted due to a typhoon warning.

One of the news that helped boost markets was China’s intensified stimulus to the economy, with other measures worth 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion), on the back of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

  • Shanghai SE (China) + 0.97%
  • Nikkei (Japan), +0.58%
  • Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +3.63%
  • Kospi (South Korea) + 0.71%

Europe

European markets rose in the morning before the Jackson Hole event and after unexpected growth for the German economy in the second quarter, despite fears of a recession amid rising inflation and threats to energy supplies after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, indicators pared the gains.

Germany’s Federal Statistics Office confirmed Thursday that German GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up to 0.1% from the previous quarter, up from an initial estimate of 0.0%.

On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.7% from the same period last year, an upward revision from the initial estimate of 1.4%.

The German Ifo Institute’s business climate index fell in August to 88.5 from 88.7 in July.

The institute expects German GDP to contract by 0.5 percentage point in the third quarter, with the possibility of a recession in the pipeline.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), +0.16%
  • Dax (Germany), +0.06%
  • CAC 40 (France), -0.12%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.35%

goods

Oil prices witnessed a slight rise after the repercussions of news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may consider reducing production of the commodity, as suggested by Saudi Arabia.

Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude contracts reached their highest levels in three weeks the day before, after the Saudi Energy Minister indicated the possibility of a production cut.

  • West Texas Intermediate crude, +0.28%, at $95.16 a barrel
  • Brent oil, +0.55%, to $101.78 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange fell 0.21% to 705.50 yuan, equivalent to $102.99

Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin, +1.49% to $21,704.47 (from 24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

This Thursday (25) the numbers of the general register of workers and the unemployed (imprisoned) were issued. ETA forecasts indicate that private sector employment stabilized in July, following an upward trajectory that began in October 2020.

Thursday also kicks off the Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual event that brings together central bank leaders, academics, and economists from around the world.

In addition, the second estimate of US GDP in the second quarter was released. The former indicated a decline of 0.9%. The Refinitiv consensus indicates a contraction of 0.8% in the second revision.

Brazil

8 a.m.: Consumer Confidence in August

10:00 a.m.: Roberto Campos Neto, President of BC, meets with representatives of Pfizer Brasil and GO Associados (closed to the press)

10:10 a.m.: Campos Neto, through a video recorded on 8/4, participates in the opening of the second edition of the Award for Recognition of Innovation for the Purpose of Financial Cooperatives, promoted by the Fenasbac Institute.

11 am: Campos Neto meets with representatives of the Foundation for Economic Research (Fipe) (closed to the press)

11:00 a.m.: Paolo Guedes, Minister of Economy, received Qualcomm President Louis Tonese

2 p.m.: Campos Neto meets with representatives of Nubank (closed to the press)

2:19 pm: Ballot Exam / IDEA

3:00 pm: Campos Neto held a meeting with representatives of BITSO and the Government Relations District (closed to the press)

8:30 p.m.: Lula participates in Globo’s Journal Nacional on Saturday

United States of America

9:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment insurance claims, with Refinitiv unanimously claiming 253,000

9:30 am: Q2 GDP, Refinitiv consensus forecasts 0.8% drop

3. Jumps from 61 to 170 The number of products cleared by IPI

The Ministry of Economy said that the new decree published by the government on Wednesday, the 24th, increased the tax on industrial products (IPI) on 109 products. According to the ministry, the number of items repaid has increased to 170 with this measure.

“The measure, which enters into force on the date of its publication, complies with the court’s decision and ends the legal uncertainty of the national productive sector. The text ensures progress in tax exemption measures, with positive effects on the country’s GDP and on the competitiveness of the industry.”

The government expects a fiscal gap of up to R$65 billion in the proposed budget for 2023

Two sources at the Ministry of Economy told Reuters that the 2023 budget bill, which will be sent to Congress by the end of this month, provides for an initial deficit of between 60 and 65 billion riyals for the central government, with the government returning to the red situation after the end of the period. A primary surplus is expected for this year, the first since 2013.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the proposal has not yet been announced, indicated that the actual number may be much worse, because the influence of Auxílio Brasil expanded from 400 reais to 600 reais has not been incorporated into the accounts, although the point of view is understood. General to be put into practice.

Aras meets with the Minister of Defense and the leaders of the armed forces

The Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Arras, met this Wednesday morning (24th) with Defense Minister Paolo Sergio Nogueira. The meeting was held at the Ministry’s headquarters and lasted about an hour.

Also participating in the meeting were the Commander of the Navy, Admiral Escuadra Garnier, the Commander of the Army, General Freire Gomez, and the Commander of the Air Force, Lieutenant-Colonel Brigadeiro de Baptista Jr.

According to PGR, the role of institutions was discussed at the meeting.

4. Covid

Last Wednesday (24), Brazil recorded 190 deaths and 17,214 cases of coronavirus within 24 hours, according to information from the Media Union, at 8 pm.

The 7-day moving average of deaths from Covid in Brazil is 151, down 26% compared to the level of 14 days before that.

The seven-day moving average of new cases was 15,245, which is a 32% decrease from the level 14 days ago.

The number of people fully vaccinated against Covid in Brazil has reached 169,962,520, which is equivalent to 79.12% of the population.

180,635,624 people received at least the first dose of vaccines, representing 84.08% of the population.

The booster dose was given to 101,976,170 people, or 47.47% of the population.

5. Corporate radar

The IRB Board of Directors (IRBR3) approved the post-distribution public offering
Share of common stock issued by the company.

The restricted offering will consist of an initial public distribution, initially, of 597,014,925 new shares, with limited placement efforts, to be carried out in Brazil, with placement efforts abroad.

The number of shares initially offered may be increased, at the company’s discretion, in agreement with the offering coordinators, by up to 200% of the total number of shares initially offered, i.e. by up to 1,194,029,850 new shares issued by the reinsurer.

Based on the closing price of shares issued by the company in B3 on Wednesday (24th) of R$2.01 billion, the total bid would be R$1.199 billion.

Petrorio (PRIO3)

Petrorio (PRIO3) announced on Wednesday (24) that it has finished raising R$2 billion via bonds.

According to the memo, the collected amount will be allocated to infrastructure projects.

Porto (PSSA3) has agreed to interest on equity for the first half of 2022, in the amount of R$397.5 million, for R$0.62330389068 per share of the company’s stock.

Payment will be made until May 30, 2023 and will be based on contribution status on August 29, 2022.

(Jointly with Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)

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