Of the more than 450 companies listed on B3, only nine have paid a flat dividend and, at the same time, have shown their earnings growth above inflation in the past four years.
The conclusion is an exclusive survey conducted by Daniel Negri, analyst and founder of Dica de Hoje Research, for Infomoney.
To get to the nine companies, the survey took into account three criteria. First, the companies needed to distribute dividends each year. Then your stock should have an average rate of return with dividends (profit return5% per year and not less than 3%.
|a job||Dividend Yield 2019||Dividend Yield 2020||Dividend Yield 2021||Dividend yield for the last 12 months||Average dividend yield over the last 4 years|
|Taissa Tai 11||8.01%||10.3%||13.51%||13.31%||11.28%|
|Brazil Agro AGRO3||5.95%||3.72%||10.48%||18.13%||9.57%|
|ROMI Industries ROMI3||13.29%||14.62%||5.03%||4.58%||9.38%|
|Bank ABC ABCB4||6.76%||3.3%||6.4%||7.88%||6.08%|
|Agricultural SLC SLCE3||4.52%||3.97%||3.87%||6.42%||4.69%|
Source: Tip of Today Research, with Economatica data. The data was Raised on 08/18/2022. profit return From the last 12 months is considered the period until 08/18/2022.
Finally, companies had to post a growth in their earnings above cumulative inflation between 2018 and the second quarter of 2022, which amounted to 30.42%, according to central bank data. Check it out below:
|a job||win 2018 (Thousand Brazilian Real)||Earnings for the last 12 months (Thousand Brazilian Real)||profit difference|
|Whirlpool WHRL4||227,032 BRL||812,865 Brazilian Real||258.04%|
|Agricultural SLC SLCE3||479266 Brazilian Real||1,509,242 BRL||214.91%|
|Ferbasa FESA4||388,188 Brazilian Real||1,095,077 Brazilian Real||182.10%|
|Graziotene CGRA4||67,590 Brazilian Real||168,905 BRL||149.90%|
|Brazil Agro AGRO3||290168 Brazilian Real||626,250 Brazilian Real||115.82%|
|ROMI Industries ROMI3||105.597 Brazilian Real||202252 Brazilian Real||91.53%|
|CPLE6 Coupe||1768805 Brazilian Real||3,321,815 Brazilian Real||87.80%|
|Taissa Tai 11||1,346,727 Brazilian Real||2,069,741 Brazilian Real||53.69%|
|Bank ABC ABCB4||525572 Brazilian Real||693493 BRL||31.95%|
Source: Tip of Today Research, with Economatica data. The profit in the last 12 months is considered the period between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022.
Earnings + growth?
Few companies are able to offer a dividend equal to or greater than the current base interest rate of 13.75% per year – an InfoMoney survey found 15 commodity and electric companies in this selection group.
But for Nigeria, the Selleck rate is not the fairest comparison to dividend yield. He points out that companies that manage to increase their profits in the long run also record a rise in their shares, in addition to dividends.
So, in his view, a company that has a dividend yield of 4.5% to 7% (lower than Selic, therefore) and strong growth potential might be more interesting than a company that pays 15% of the dividend yield, but is declining or also. Mature to continue growing.
“A company that earns R$500 million annually, without growth, can distribute all of its profits and even then there will be no appreciation in the shares,” he explains. “A company with an initial net profit of R$300 million that starts to make R$1.5 billion after ten years is likely to show up.”
Nigeria highlights management’s ability to maximize profits and gain stake in the sector significantly in long-term stock selection. To outperform fixed income, corporate earnings growth must at least outpace inflation over the period.
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History is important
In addition to dividend growth, the history of dividends paid by companies is also important in choosing, although it is not a guarantee of future returns. Negri sees an average dividend yield of 5.75% per annum would be ideal to ensure higher fixed income gains, considering the interest offered by inflation-linked government bonds (Treasury IPCA+). For this reason, it chose at least 5% as a survey metric.
Negri also believes that consistency in payments is important. He points out that companies like Petrobras (PETR4) — whose dividend yield should be 33.67% in the next 12 months, according to Economics data — haven’t been regularly paying dividends in the past decade. According to Comdinheiro data, there were no payments from the state-owned company between 2015 and 2017.
Only 21 stocks on the exchange meet these criteria – and among them, nine have also been able to achieve profits above inflation.
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Favorite “escalatory” actions among the nine alternatives
Among the nine companies that combine dividend growth and fixed dividend payments, Negri points to four that, in his view, have strong long-term rising potential.
The first is Banco ABC (ABCB4), which, according to Negri, has the potential to pay between R$1.40 and R$1.50 per share over the next 12 months, representing a dividend yield of about 7.5%. Share the price. Profits may rise from R$ 693 million to R$ 830 million in the same period, according to their forecast.
Negri explains that Banco ABC focuses on corporate clients. The foundation works with the middle market segment, which are companies with annual revenues ranging between R$ 30 million and R$ 250 million. But it has already served customers with sales of over R$100 million in the past.
In the second quarter, ABC increased its revenue from services and saw quarterly net income exceed R$200 million for the first time in its history, Negri recalls.
Although the law mandates that 25% of adjusted net income be paid in the form of a dividend, Negri notes that Bank ABC distributed about 35% of interest on equity (JCP) on a quarterly basis.
The second company is Copel (CPLE6), which is engaged in the distribution, generation and transmission of power in Paraná. The dividend policy changes according to the level of its indebtedness, which ranges from 25% to 65% of adjusted net income.
According to Negri, one of the advantages of Cobel is that it adjusts its tariffs according to inflation, which supports long-term profit growth. He also cites the sale of Copel Telecom, a subsidiary sold by Copel in 2021, which shows the company’s ability to generate shareholder value.
In 2022, Negri believes that Coppell’s results should be affected by PIS credits and Cofins being repaid to consumers, as well as an increase in the cost of the company’s debt. The view, though, is that the company will earn between R$1.3 billion and R$1.5 billion, with 65% distributed as dividend. He predicts that “Cobel should pay between R$0.35 and R$0.40 per share, a return of 5% to 6% for 2022.”
Nigiri favorites still contain Ferbasa (FESA4) and BrasilAgro (AGRO3). The former is an iron and chrome mining company, producing about 75,000 tons per quarter. As a source, it displays exposure to dollars and commodity prices.
Negri believes that in the next 12 months, the company’s profit could reach R$1.1 billion. “Ferbasa can distribute between R$5.50 and $6 per share in this period, a return greater than 10%.”
On the other hand, BrasilAgro should not perform as well as in 2021, but it is still considered interesting. Negri believes that in October, the company can distribute 170 million R$ in dividends, between R$1.65 and R$1.75 per share, equivalent to a return of about 6.5%.
He points out that BrasilAgro is the most frequent company in the survey, because it generates revenue by selling land or soybean and corn crops, while the land is not sold. Negri says the shares are down 40%, but should rise as land prices go up.
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