Ibovespa is down 0.89%, but does better than its peers globally;  The dollar closes stable

Ibovespa is down 0.89%, but does better than its peers globally; The dollar closes stable

The Ibovespa closed down 0.89% on Monday (22) at 110,500 points. The main index of the Brazilian stock market declined, but it did better than its American counterparts.

In New York, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.90%, 2.13% and 2.55%, respectively.

According to experts, there are a number of factors that collectively increase risk aversion around the world – the VIX index, considered the “fear index”, jumped 16.26% to 23.95 points, the highest level since the beginning of July.

The risk aversion movement abroad is still very strong. a Effects [catalisador] The main one is Europe. The old continent faces inflation and concerns about its growth. Thus, markets are performing gathering over the past 30 days,” comments Oberagara Silva, Director of Galapagos Capital.

Fabio Lozada, Founding Economist of Eu me banco, highlights the fact that the Euro has fallen against the US currency – the currency closed today at $0.99. This is due to fears of recession and high inflation in the European Union. Joachim Nagel, director of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the institution must continue to raise interest rates, even if the risks of a recession are significant.

In the UK, port and public transport workers are on strike. In France, President Emmanuel Macron pressured Carrefour to freeze prices of 100 products.

In China, the climate is also a concern. The heat wave in recent days has caused the government to restrict energy use and is also affecting the country’s crops.

“Brazilian mining and steel are declining due to the interruption of steel production in China, with heat waves. We had a slight perception of commodity prices, with crude lower,” highlights Rodrigo Crespi, analyst at Guide Investimentos.

Among the biggest declines by weight in Ibovespa were common stocks CSN (CSNA3), with minus 3.90%, and Vale (VALE3), with minus 1.63%. Gerdau’s preferred stock (GGBR4) was down 2.57%.

Larissa Quaresma, an expert at Empiricus, points out that despite lower mineral and oil prices, drought in China has pushed up the value of agricultural commodities – which could put pressure on inflation, which already has problems with cores.

“Overseas, in the US, the market has turned the mood. The narrative, with optimism about controlled inflation and the Fed being more lenient in raising interest rates, slackened after the comments of key Fed officials. This made the market review overly optimistic,” the specialist comments. “It looks like the Fed will continue to raise rates, probably at a solid pace that is still 75 basis points. The market is waiting for Powell to speak at the Jackson Hole conference later this week.”

The US yield curve advances at once. You are treasury bonds For ten years its yield has risen four basis points to 3.029%. Those for two years were 3.325%, up six points.

“In Brazil, all this year, rallies It was pulled by the foreign influx. The event that just happened last month was too. Apparently, the domestic investor is still less than the allotted. As the situation worsens abroad, the reaction here becomes inevitable,” Quaresma says.

However, Brazilian future interest rates have seen smaller increases than those recorded abroad. DI indices for the year 2023 closed, inclusive, with its price falling one point, to 13.73%. The contracts for 2025 and 2027 saw their returns rise by one and four basis points, to 12.09% and 11.83%. Contracts for 2029 recorded a six-point increase in their return, to 11.98%, and contracts for 2023 six points, to reach 12.08%.

“Ibovespa, although lower abroad, has fallen less, and so is the real one, which is doing well. The market is betting that Brazil has raised interest rates before, made tax cuts, cuts fuel prices. There is a feeling that the worst is over here.” , adds the Galapagos director.

Despite the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against other currencies of developed countries, as it rose by 0.71%, at 108.94 points, the US currency closed stable against the real, at 5.166 Brazilian riyals in purchases and 5167 Brazilian reais for sale. , with a slight negative difference of 0.03%.

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