a luisa magazine (MGLU3) is up 77% from this year’s low, hit on July 4, through Friday’s session.
In that period of less than two months, The company released the second quarter numbers and saw central bank A sign that the interest rate hike cycle may be coming to an end.
It was enough for the newspaper, which has been sanctioned since July 2021, to rise as if there was no tomorrow. However, the managers who spoke with Money Times Do not see that the rise is sustainable and prefers “wait and see” before buying Magalu.
This is the case New Investment. This is not the best time to take on this position, says Cassio Lucien, retail analyst with the principal.
For him, there are some indications that the company may see an improvement in the second half, buoyed by events like Sixta Viera Negra And the world Cup, which was even mentioned by executives on the earnings conference call. However, the overall situation is still very challenging, he points out.
“I’d like to see more evidence, particularly in the macro economy, and obviously, how that will be reflected in the company’s results, given the characteristics of our fund, which are more long-term, it highlights.
Remember that the company has a large exposure in Home appliances and electronics have greater competition.
“We’ve had the procedure in the past, but today we don’t. Magalu I need to present it so I have evidence to put into my model and say: Really, guys have turned the page, things are starting to move, and the overall scenario is better. Today, I have no such evidence. I’m not a Magalu buyer,” he says.
The vision is similar to that of Lucas Ribeiro, from Kinetro. In your opinion, roles luisa magazine The result of the macro has risen and will depend on it to sustain themselves, which can be risky.
“If the data inflation If you do not increase market expectations about the yield curve, the environment will remain more vulnerable to companies like luisa magazine‘, he argues.
Fierce competition from the free market
However, the main point for Ribeiro not having the company in his portfolio is the fierce competition. According to him, in other countries, the E-Commerce It is controlled by two companies at most.
When you look at the market Brazilian e-commerce, he has a very good perspective, it is probably the most growing in the world because the penetration in Brazil is low. However, you have many players competing for this market.
For Ribeiro, lately, it was The competition, which was equal for the other players, became even more unequal.
“Hey free market It has a more robust performance and, as a result, is able to invest more and more on the sidelines,” he notes.
He remembers that the company has a solid plan to invest R $ 17 billion in Brazil, roughly the market value of American (Amer 3).
However, he says he does not invest in E-Commerce To evaluate it, at this moment it is difficult to decide the winner, but that is if You should invest in some paper, it will be in free market.
“Structurally, we’ve always had concerns with Brazilian e-commerce because in this fierce competition for space, you have a very aggressive competitive environment,” he adds.
This position was endorsed by Sarah Delphim, from Dalia Capitalwith 7 billion Rls under management, Who said why did you get rid of the company position? The past few months on the podcast market makers.
“It wasn’t for luisa magazine, it was by sector. we had inflation height and central bank Raising interest rates in a highly competitive sector. while we United State you have the AmazonHere in Brazil luisa magazineAnd the Across (VIIA3), American (Amer 3), shoppingAnd the Amazon. There are five men who can fight over the slice of pizza. We’ve seen the overall sector deteriorate, with a lot of competition,” he says.
It also states that companies experienced a “brutal increase” in product inventories between the third and fourth quarters.
In other words, companies entered a difficult year with a large inventory. The only way to sell is to promote. There, you lose money. It had clearer stories on the stock exchange, with even greater growth potential. Then we had exchanges,” he says.
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