The average CDB rate drops to 100% of the CDI in several periods after Copom;  The highest return on the fixed rate is 14.34%

The average CDB rate drops to 100% of the CDI in several periods after Copom; The highest return on the fixed rate is 14.34%

Part of the market’s skepticism about the continuation of the negative correction cycle was resolved after the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COBOM) – which raised the value of silicate to 13.75% annually – and the official inflation rate improved. data.

In reading a large part of the analysts, the document reinforced the idea that the rise should be the last when mentioning inflation expectations for the beginning of 2024 and the delayed effects of monetary policy, which should become more intense in the second half of the year.

Faced with the Keep Selic scenario and the likely start of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2023, the average yield offered by Certificates of Deposit Banks (CDBs) – on most terms – decreased between August 1 and 12 compared to the previous fifteen days.

The data is part of a survey commissioned by Quantum Finance, a financial market solutions company, on request Infomoney.

According to the study, in the past two weeks, the median rate offered by CDBs associated with a six-month CDI was 100.08% of the CDI, lower than the 101.17% of the CDI seen 15 days earlier. The percentages do not take into account the income tax (IR) deduction.

Similarly, the maximum return delivered by paper maturing in six months reached 104% of the CDI between August 1 and 12, versus 106% of the CDI in the past two weeks. There was also a drop in the high interest rates offered by 12-month CDB banks, which went from 110% of CDI to 108% of CDI in the last 15 days.

The only maximum rate increase was recorded among CDBs maturing in 24 months, which saw the return from 106% of CDI to 118% of CDI in the past two weeks. The paper in question was issued by Banco Mercantil and has a credit risk rating (evaluation) BBB+ long-term national, according to Fitch ratings, a level considered to be of good quality (the speculative and riskier evaluation from BB).

Returns from CDBs Indexed to CDI (from 08/01 to 08/12)

Duration (months) indexed lowest price average maximum rate number of titles top rate source
3 de 97.00% 102.28% 105.00% 43 PAN BANK, ALFA BANK
6 de 97.50% 100.08% 104.00% 20 XP . Bank
12 de 90.00% 100.66% 108.00% 41 HAITONG BANCO DE INVESTIMENTOS DO BRASIL
24 de 98.00% 100.48% 118.00% 28 Banco Mercantile Brazil
36+ de 94.00% 101.94% 103.00% 47 Daikoval Bank

Source: Quantum Finance. Note: Returns are total, excluding income tax deduction.

CDBs linked to inflation

Although the estimates for Selic have remained at the same levels in the last two surveys by the central bank focus (13.75% in 2022, 11% in 2023, and 8% in 2024), it is necessary to consider that inflation expectations have been under control. . changes in the period.

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According to a Focus report released on Monday (15), the broad CPI estimate for 2022 fell from 7.11% to 7.02% in one week, but that for 2023 increased from 5.38% to 5.38% and for 2024, from 3.30% to 3.41%. A month ago, expectations were 7.54%, 5.20% and 3.30%, respectively.

However, increases in inflation expectations for the following years do not appear to be reflected in higher real rates. A quantitative study showed that the average interest offered by inflation-linked CDBs was reduced for all maturities.

In the case of securities maturing in 12 months, the average real return decreased slightly from 8.54% per year to 8.46% per year. However, in the long run, such as 24 months, the average true rate decreased from 7.43% per year to 6.78% per year.

There have also been changes to the maximum real rate offered by bonds. The highest real interest rate offered to Canadian development banks due in 24 months increased from 8.30% annually, in the past two weeks, to 7.14% annually, between August 1 and 12.

The decline was most pronounced among the 36-month-maturity notes, which saw maximum contract real yield from 8.30% per year to 6.29% per year in the past two weeks.

Returns on CDBs linked to the inflation index (from 08/01 to 08/12)

Duration (months) indexed lowest price average maximum rate number of titles top rate source
12 100% IPCA 5.57% 8.46% 9.11% 181 Banco BTG PACTUAL
24 100% IPCA 5.90% 6.78% 7.14% 26 Banco BTG PACTUAL
36+ 100% IPCA 5.55% 5.92% 6.29% 4 Banco BTG PACTUAL

Source: Quantum Finance. Note: Returns are total, excluding income tax deduction.

CBD prefixed

Fixed-rate securities—in which the price is “locked in” at the time the investor purchases the securities—also reported a lower average interest rate offered by most securities, Cobom minutes later.

The decline was most telling in the case of fixed interest rates on debt payable after 36 months, which saw the average yield drop from 14.69% per annum to 13.11% per annum.

Read more:
• The yield curve turnover causes fixed-rate securities to rise up to 10% in less than a month. understand

A similar movement was seen in the case of maximum rates delivered by bonds with the same maturity – from three years. In this case, the maximum interest has increased from 15.10% per annum to 14.15% per annum in the past two weeks.

The CDB in question was a paper issued by Banco Daycoval, which has a credit risk rating (evaluation) AA National long-term, according to Fitch ratings, one of the best credit ratings in the market.

Payouts from CDBs Advance (from 08/01 to 08/12)

Duration (months) indexed lowest price average maximum rate number of titles top rate source
3 prior 13.50% 13.82% 14.12% 60 Daikoval Bank
6 prior 13.35% 13.91% 14.15% 21 Daikoval Bank
12 prior 13.45% 13.88% 14.27% 30 Daikoval Bank
24 prior 12.95% 13.37% 14.34% 8 BMG Bank
36+ prior 12.11% 13.11% 14.15% 20 Daikoval Bank

Source: Quantum Finance. Note: Returns are total, excluding income tax deduction.

IBC-Br is off the radar

After a busy week with economic indicators, the highlight of the domestic agenda is the release of the Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), which rose by 0.57% in the second quarter, according to the central bank. Compared to the previous month, the increase was 0.69% in June.

The result was above market expectations (which had forecast 0.25% growth, according to Refinitiv consensus). With the June result, IBC-Br has accumulated 2.24% in the year and 2.18% in the past 12 months.

In the assessment of Gustavo Sung, chief economist at Suno Research, performance in June was particularly affected by the expansion of the services sector, with a gain of 0.7%. On the other hand, trade was flat and the industry was down 0.4% in the month.

For the next quarter, Song argues that a healthy labor market recovery, along with tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, will help give the economy a fresh breath.

The problem should be left to the fourth quarter at the discretion of the economist. In the last three months of the year, we are seeing stabilization. Higher interest rates, broad-based inflation and the depletion of benefits from reopening the economy are expected to negatively impact activity.”

On other days of the week, attention will turn abroad, explained Roberto Padovani, chief economist at Banco BV. The executive highlights that eurozone GDP numbers, which will be shown on Wednesday (17), will help set the tone for international and domestic interest rate markets.

The market will also focus on the minutes of the last meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed, US central bank), which will be presented on the same day (17), to reset expectations for the interest rate. Hiking in the country. In its last meeting, the monetary authority raised interest rates by 75 basis points (0.75 percentage points) to range between 2.25% and 2.50% annually.

US industrial and retail production data will also be closely watched, as they indicate the pace of expansion of US economic activity, which may favor more or less tight monetary policy on the part of the Federal Reserve.

Looking outside, Padovani feels that the domestic scenario should not change this week. “The reading is that inflation should continue to decline and BC is about to end the cycle, favoring interest rates down, especially on the shorter part. [da curva de juros]”, He says.

While cognizant of the signal given by the central bank, the BV economist believes the monetary authority will be able to adjust Selic by another 0.25 percentage point at the September meeting, which would raise the base rate to 14%, according to the bank’s latest change.

The update was also accompanied by a downward revision of inflation estimates for this year, which now stand at 7.6%, down from a previous forecast of 8%.

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