The Buffalo Bills managed to win their playoff opener against the Miami Dolphins in a game they largely dominated – only a few mistakes and a sleepy second quarter left the Dolphins significantly lower in the match and made it closer than in the end the top favorite would have liked to have.
Bills vs. Dolphins: At a Glance
- The Bills dominated early on, taking a 17-0 lead behind Josh Allen’s passing game (23 of 39 for 352 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and -8.5 EPA). In the second quarter, however, you quickly felt quite safe, which led to a sleepy and hazy game. Allen threw a careless and unlucky interception in the second quarter, each resulting in points.
- The Dolphins tied with a series of field goals and a late touchdown on Mike Gesicki at 17:17. Rookie quarterback Skyler Thompson (18 of 45 for 220 yards1 TD, 2 INTs and -9.2 EPA) had his mistakes, but also had to be annoyed by a few drops from his receivers – especially Jaylen Waddle, who also thanks to a shoulder injury early in the game. Gameplay remained ineffective.
- In the second half, the Dolphins even took the lead thanks to a sack-strip fumble from Josh Allen that Zach Sieler carried to a touchdown. But the Bills have taken their opponent more seriously now than they did in the second quarter.
- With Miami now adjusting to Allen’s deep balls, the Bills responded with more short passes – and pulled away with two touchdowns on Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis at 34:24.
- Miami pulled back with a 76-yard drive and had the ball just short of the 50-yard line with minutes to go – but Skylar Thompson couldn’t finish Gesicki at 4th-and-6.
Bills vs. Dolphins: The Analysis
The Bills were unstoppable for the first quarter and quickly established a clear lead with a short pass to Dawson Knox and a 12-yard run from James Cook. The Dolphins must have been annoyed by the falls of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, after three Dolphins drives the two still had no grip with 5 targets.
The Bills mainly trained their passing game through Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs: Diggs had 100 yards in the first quarter, and Davis made a spectacular catch early in the second quarter that made the field 17-0. Davis’ hold was initially ruled incomplete, but Sean McDermott threw the challenge flag, much to Diggs’ delight.
This was followed by a phase in which the bills clearly slowed down. Allen threw a very bored interception that led to a Dolphins field goal thanks to a big return from Xavien Howard. Two drives later it was an angled ball to Cole Beasley, which Jevon Holland also returned well. The Dolphins were able to convert their strong position at Buffalo 18 into a touchdown on Gesicki and tie it with a 2-point conversion on Tyreek Hill.
The Bills hit a field goal just before halftime, but the problems continued after the break: The first play was a sack tape from Eric Rowe that defensive lineman Zach Sieler carried to the TD. The Dolphins even held the lead for several drives until on 3rd and 19th alone 8 McDaniel had a tough shot for his rookie QB up his sleeve: Thompson threw low and left to first down, exactly where the Bills’ zone defense got its coverage had focus. Rookie cornerback Kaiir Elam intercepted the ball and gave the Bills offense the spark it needed. A short (TD on Beasley) and a long TD (on Gabe Davis) followed, giving a 10-point lead with 2 minutes left in the third quarter.
The Dolphins still had a practice up their sleeve, with running backs Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson Jr. stepping into the limelight, but after Wilson’s TD at 31:14, the Dolphins offense went into overdrive. breathless. Waddle has always tried to put accents in the closing stages — a 14-yard completion on 2nd-and-15 is one of them — but those were the Dolphins’ last positive yards. A confusing delay in play turned 4th and 1 into 4th and 6, and there the final pass fell incomplete.
NFL Wildcard Playoffs: Buffalo Bills (14-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (9-9)
Result: 34:31 (14:0, 6:17, 14:7, 0:7) BOXSCORE
Bills vs Dolphins – the most important stats
- In the first quarter, the Bills held the ball for 11 of 15 minutes. Even before Miami warmed up offensively, the Bills were 17-0.
- Stefon Diggs had 110 yards early in the second quarter after just four drives. He had 4 yards on the remaining 12 drives.
- The Bills had nearly twice as much yardage as the Dolphins – 423 to 231.
- Miami was able to follow through big plays, but was clearly below 3.3 yards per play at 5.9, -0.19 EPA/play at -0.13 and 32% completion rate at 44% for the Bills. The Dolphins scored 17 points after Buffalo turnovers. Without help from the opposing offense, the Dolphins offense was largely overwhelmed.
- The Bills could land first downs when needed to ease the passing game. 4.1 yards per carry, 0.03 EPA/carry and 8 first downs on the ground – often courtesy of Josh Allen – were more than the Dolphins could boast on the field.
The star of the match: Josh Allen (Quarterback, Bills)
Allen had his share of a sleepy second quarter, but the rest of the game was one of unequivocal dominance from one of the best in his position. A perfect touchdown to Dawson Knox and a deep touchdown from 50 yards to Khalil Shakir were given via an incomplete touchdown, otherwise Allen’s tag would have been even more dominant.
The flop of the match: Jaylen Waddle (Wide Receiver, Dolphins)
When the score was 0-0, Waddle failed to complete a perfect through ball – likely due to the deep sun – and dropped it. It’s hard to imagine how the match would have gone if he had caught it. Coupled with the shoulder injury, it wasn’t until the fourth quarter that Waddle showed signs of life – clearly not enough when the offense needs to help the backup QB.
Analysis: Bills vs Dolphins – the tactics chart
- The Dolphins initially tried to wreak havoc, at least on defense. Instead of getting dissected in Zone, the plan was to force Allen to miss with 0 coverage blitzes. But Allen could respond, and not with a check or a hot screen. The through pass to Stefon Diggs on the second drive announced the 14:0 and made it clear that the Dolphins in cover cannot follow this strategy.
- Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer then moved away from the total blitz – a wise move. The Bills offense found its pace much worse from the second quarter.
- The Bills defense was able to generate pressure early on, but didn’t adapt in the second quarter when Miami head coach Mike McDaniel simplified complex moves to allow for faster throws . It wasn’t until the second half that she switched from pressing to covering – and was able to intercept Thompson in the third quarter.
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